May 19 2008
Clinching the nomination
While I would like nothing more than this increasingly divisive and destructive primary to be over, I am not of the opinion that Senator Obama should declare himself the victor tomorrow night unless he actually has a total of 2,025 delegates (pledged and super). 2,025 is the number the DNC says you need and it is the number I believe should be honored. A simple majority of the delegates available is not enough. In this I will actually agree with the Clinton camp.
Obama to reach delegate milestone Tuesday
WASHINGTON (AP) – Barack Obama will reach a significant milestone Tuesday as he marches toward the Democratic nomination for president – a majority of pledged delegates at stake in all the primaries and caucuses.
Obama will still be short of the overall number of delegates needed to clinch the nomination, unless he were to suddenly receive an avalanche of endorsements from the party and elected officials known as superdelegates. But the Illinois senator’s campaign is touting the delegate milestone as a big step in defeating his rival, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York.
“A clear majority of elected delegates will send an unmistakable message – the people have spoken, and they are ready for change,” Obama campaign manager David Plouffe wrote in a memo to supporters Monday.
“As we near victory in one contest, the next challenge is already heating up,” Plouffe wrote. “President Bush and Senator McCain have begun coordinating their attacks on Barack Obama in an effort to extend their failed policies for a third term.”[..]
Obama goes into Tuesday’s contests with 1,610.5 pledged delegates won in primaries and caucuses. He needs 17 more to reach a majority of the 3,253 pledged delegates available. Clinton has 1,443.5 pledged delegates, according to the latest tally by The Associated Press.
Clinton’s campaign played down the significance of the milestone, accusing Obama of declaring victory without reaching the required number of overall delegates.
“Premature victory laps and false declarations of victory are unwarranted. Declaring ‘mission accomplished’ does not make it so,” Howard Wolfson, Clinton’s communications director, said in a memo to supporters.
Obama has a total of 1,915 delegates overall, including endorsements from superdelegates. Clinton has 1,721, according to the latest AP count.
Obama is a little more than 100 delegates short of the 2,026 needed to clinch the nomination. He cannot make up that ground in the Kentucky and Oregon primaries because of the proportional way in which Democrats award delegates. The two states have a total of 103 delegates at stake Tuesday.
If Senator Obama were to somehow win enough delegates from Oregon and Kentucky tomorrow that, when added to the superdelegates who have declared for him, will put him over the 2,025 delegates needed to win the nomination, then I say by all means declare victory. Shout it loud and clear from every rooftop. The Clinton campaign will still object (they are still whining about Florida and Michigan), but they won’t really have a leg upon which to stand. Most of them are adult enough to know this.
There is really little to no doubt left in the minds of most realistic people that Barack Obama will be the nominee of the Democratic party and the next President of the United States. However, in order to make the latter happen, we will need the support of those who are still clinging to the hems of Mrs. Clinton’s pantsuits. Some of them, thankfully, are beginning to see the light. But all of them are going to be needed in November, and that will not happen if they feel that their heroine was “cheated” in any way.
UPDATE: Via Politico –
Obama: No victory declaration Tuesday
MILWAUKIE, Ore. — Concerned about appearing presumptuous or antagonistic towards Hillary Rodham Clinton, Barack Obama will not declare victory in the Democratic nomination fight Tuesday in the event he wins enough pledged delegates to claim a majority.
Rather, he’ll tiptoe right up to the line, without explicitly asserting the race is over.
While it may sound like an exercise in hair-splitting, the conscious decision not to declare victory is a revealing measure of the sensitivity surrounding overtures that appear to disrespect Clinton and her supporters.
It’s also a reflection of the Obama campaign’s supreme confidence in the delegate math at this juncture — the campaign now appears secure enough in its commanding position that it no longer feels compelled to declare victory in an attempt to marginalize Clinton.
It’s all good.
9 Responses to “Clinching the nomination”
Pity he doesn’t have the majority of actual votes. Oh well, good enough for Bush good enough for BO.
@jay : Pity she doesn’t, either. You know, somebody is going to come out of this thing the nominee of the Democratic party. There will be a winner and there will be a loser. Unfortunately, not everybody is going to be happy. I just hope there is some way that all the bitterness and hatred can subside in time for us to win in November. If not, everybody loses.
Well, neither have the magic number of delegates. Clinton has more popular votes. BO has more caucus delegates…which, if you are honest, has got to be the screwiest and most un-democratic way conceived of by any political party. I had thought that democrats would be a bit uneasy with a system that awards the person finishing second, but I suppose memory is short among youth.
At any rate….the bitterness and hatred has come from Obama followers toward Clinton followers. I know you got the memo to be nice and try to mend fences, but it may be too late for all the voting blocs thrown under the bus in the race to coronate the precious. I myself am still inclined to vote against McCain if I am not allowed to vote for a strong candidate, but I know a lot of women, Latinos, working stiffs, and old farts that have gotten a good look at the party and will have nothing to do with it at all…forever…for any democrat in any office.
I wonder who we will blame when we lose, again, this November?
(Sigh.) Not an argument worth having. If you want to change the way your party chooses its nominee, the time to do so is before the primary, not during.
Again, I guess that is all in your point of view. I haven’t seen it that way, but I suppose there are those who have. I don’t hate Hillary Clinton. I was rather disappointed in the way she conducted her campaign. I honestly expected better of her. But I’m not bitter toward her nor do I hate her. I think she is a very smart and capable lady who, unfortunately, fell for some bad advice from the people in charge of her campaign.
Now who’s being hateful and bitter?
That is unfortunate and truly sad. If it is true, we all lose. Have the past eight years not taught us anything?
I don’t know about you, but I’ll be blaming the people who did not vote for the Democratic nominee.
Nope, no memo received here. I’m not on the memo-receiving list, I guess.
I have voted a straight Democratic ticket in every election since 1972. I am not going to change now.
I think that most of us had no idea (and still don’t) just what the rules are. I also think that it is basically undemocratic to null and void millions of votes because of a procedure that the voters had no voice in.
Anyway. The party survived ‘68.
Obama is a right candidate to be a next President
@jay : It is definitely your right to think those things, though I guarantee you that the candidates (including Bill and Hillary Clinton) understood and agreed to the rules before the primaries began.
I don’t understand what ‘68 has to do with anything (unless you are planning a demonstration outside the Pepsi Center in Denver), but yes, it did.
I know it’s ancient history but I’m not talking about the demonstrations, rather the party organization itself leading up to the primary. It’s rather complicated, but the end result was a very weak candidate picked by the party elite and a shutout of pretty much everybody else. The result was Nixon and a steady disintegration of the Democratic rule in Congress.
Obama supporters who think that nobody in their right mind would vote for McCain, or that large majorities will not desert the party (or just sit out the election) are fooling themselves. There is very real dissent out there. November will be much too late to address it. A lot of people will chose the lesser of two evils. A lot will see both as evil and refuse to participate.
As an aside; I’m sure the candidates understood the rules even though they both saturated the state with campaign workers, but I doubt the voters had a say when their Republican controlled legislature PICKED THE PRIMARY DATE FOR THEM. What to do about them? Just ignore their votes? Is that really what this party is about now? Can the party really tell millions of fellow democrats to piss off without consequences? Tell me why the Democrat party will represent me more than the Republican party when they will not even count my vote.
Jay, I know you’ll forgive me for not addressing your last comment. If I did, you would not like what I said.
I guess it is now up to you to decide which party best represents your interests and your well being. Nobody can do that for you except you. Good luck.