First Door on the Left

WASHINGTON (AP) - Intelligence analysts predicted, in secret papers circulated within the government before the Iraq invasion, that al-Qaida would see U.S. military action as an opportunity to increase its operations and that Iran would try to shape a post-Saddam Iraq.

The top analysts in government also said that establishing a stable democracy in Iraq would be a “long, difficult and probably turbulent process.”

Democrats said the newly declassified documents, part of a Senate Intelligence Committee investigation released Friday, make clear that the Bush administration was warned about the very challenges it now faces as it tries to stabilize Iraq…

Among other conclusions, the analysts found:

- Establishing a stable democracy in Iraq would be a long, steep and probably turbulent challenge. They said that contributions could be made by 4 million Iraqi exiles and Iraq’s impoverished, underemployed middle class. But they noted that opposition parties would need sustained economic, political and military support.

- Al-Qaida would see the invasion as a chance to accelerate its attacks, and the lines between al-Qaida and other terrorist groups “could become blurred.” In a weak spot in the analysis, one paper said that the risk of terror attacks would spike after the invasion and slow over the next three to five years. However, the State Department recently found that attacks last year alone rose sharply.

- Groups in Iraq’s deeply divided society would become violent, unless stopped by the occupying force. “Score settling would occur throughout Iraq between those associated with Saddam’s regime and those who have suffered most under it,” one report stated.

- Iraq’s neighbors would jockey for influence and Iranian leaders would try to shape the post-Saddam era to demonstrate Tehran’s importance in the region. The less Tehran felt threatened by U.S. actions, the analysts said, “the better the chance that they could cooperate in the postwar period.”

- Postwar Iraq would face significant economic challenges, having few resources beyond oil. Analysts predicted that Iraq’s large petroleum resources would make economic reconstruction easier, but they didn’t anticipate that continued fighting and sabotage would drag down oil production.

- Military action to eliminate Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction would not cause other governments in the region to give up such programs.