The Republican party is celebrating a victory in California yesterday. However, the New York Times agrees with Governor Dean. The fact that Californians chose a sexually perverted comedic actor to serve as their governor is no cause for celebration among Republicans. Rather, it should be a warning of things to come.
LOS ANGELES, Oct. 7 — The voter revolt in California sent a jolt through national political circles on Tuesday night, raising the possibility that other embattled governors could face similar insurrections in an atmosphere of rising animosity toward incumbents and increasingly anger-driven campaigns.
Republicans asserted that the unseating of a Democratic governor in an overwhelmingly Democratic state was the latest phase in a realignment that began with last year’s Congressional elections and would continue in 2004.
Democrats described it an anomaly, reflecting the enormous unpopularity of Gov. Gray Davis and the fact that Arnold Schwarzenegger, an immensely popular movie star, was far more moderate than his party, making him an easy choice for Democrats and independent voters.
But more than a measure of the strength of each political party, the unseating of a sitting governor 11 months after he was re-elected was the latest sign of the power of the anti-establishment wave that has been roiling American politics since at least the emergence of Ross Perot in 1992.
What happened on Tuesday, if unique to the peculiar politics and culture of this state, was in many ways a manifestation of the force that has powered Howard Dean to the front of the Democratic presidential contest. From that perspective, the message may prove to be less a warning to Democrats or Republicans, and more one to incumbents, or candidates perceived as too closely tied to the political system, members of both parties said.
“If I were a governor from a different state with a huge deficit and bad poll ratings, I’d be scared senseless,” said Frank Luntz, a Republican pollster who frequently offers advice to the nation’s Republican governors. “If you’re a governor in a recall state, this will send chills down your spine.”
Dr. Dean’s campaign manager, Joe Trippi, asserted that the voter anger in California was prevalent across the nation — and to a large extent accounted for the success of Dr. Dean as he runs in Iowa and New Hampshire as an outsider against Washington.
“Right now, you could hold a recall in every state in the country — and I bet a lot of governors would be in a lot of trouble,” Mr. Trippi said.
Dr. Dean issued a statement on Tuesday invoking the result as a predictor of his own campaign for the White House. “Tonight the voters in California directed their frustration with the country’s direction on their incumbent governor,” he said. “Come next November, the anger might be directed at a different incumbent — in the White House.”
The immediate attention on Tuesday night was on California and the 2004 race for president. Mr. Luntz and other Republicans presented the party’s success here as evidence that California — a state that has become increasingly Democratic over the past decade — would be competitive next year.
“It means California is in play for the presidential,” he said. “It means that a majority of the population here either voted against a Democrat or voted for a Republican.”
But as several Democrats and some outside analysts noted, there were circumstances to this election that would suggest that California next year will be something less than fertile territory for President Bush.
For one thing, Mr. Davis, as his own advisers said, was about as easy an opponent to run against as any challenger could ask for. Three-quarters of Californians, responding to polls of voters on Tuesday, said they had an unfavorable view of his job performance.
For another, Mr. Schwarzenegger and Mr. Bush, although members of the same party, hold sharply different views on issues that prove critical with big groups of voters here. In last year’s Republican primary for governor, Republican voters rejected Richard J. Riordan, a moderate Republican who was mayor of Los Angeles, in favor of Bill Simon Jr., a conservative.
Mr. Schwarzenegger is in favor of abortion rights and gay rights, presents himself as an environmental advocate, and supports many forms of gun control. It is hard to imagine that he could even have won a Republican primary here.