Burlington, VT.–In Howard Dean’s sprawling campaign headquarters, where the staff appears to come in two ages–young and younger–it is a 4-year-old who really stands out. Kasey, a West Highland white terrier and the official campaign dog, lives to do her official campaign trick. “Kasey?” Joe Trippi, Kasey’s owner and Dean’s campaign manager, asks. “Would you rather work for George Bush or be dead?” Kasey immediately flops onto her side and extends her front and hind legs in a reasonable imitation of rigor mortis. Kasey will get a dog biscuit for this and the staff always gets a laugh, but the trick is significant in one respect: Trippi used to ask Kasey if she would rather work for John Kerry, one of Dean’s Democratic opponents, or be dead (Kasey’s response was the same), but now the Dean campaign has moved way beyond John Kerry.
Having raised more money than any Democrat in the second quarter of this year, having attracted more volunteers, in its estimation, than any campaign in history, and having reached the magical “top tier” status in the eyes of most media, the Dean campaign is now looking to take on Dubya himself. Trippi describes the next phase of the Dean campaign this way: “Over the next six months,” he says, “we must be in George Bush’s face.”
And it intends to be there with more than doggie tricks. U.S. News has learned that the Dean campaign will spend between $100,000 and $200,000 to put up a new television commercial running this week in the unlikely (and probably unwinnable) state of Texas. In the ad, which Dean taped last Wednesday in Council Bluffs, Iowa, he wears a blue, open-necked work shirt, faces the camera, and says, “I want to change George Bush’s reckless foreign policy, stand up for affordable healthcare, and create new jobs . . . . Has anybody really stood up against George Bush and his policies? Don’t you think it’s time somebody did?”
The pitch, which is airing only in Austin (at the same time President Bush is vacationing in Crawford, 87 miles away), is to some extent a stunt but on another level is intended to send the message that Dean will cede no ground to Bush anywhere. “We want to go right into the belly of the beast,” Trippi says.
Dean’s first reaction to the idea of a Texas ad was a somewhat amazed: “What?” But Trippi repeated his Zen-like advice to the candidate. “I tell him the only way he can win is to believe in his heart he cannot win,” Trippi says. “We’ve got to act like we have nothing to lose.”
Party pooper. And Dean has run a high-risk campaign from the beginning. Though some on the staff originally imagined that Dean would come across as Josiah Bartlet, the very bright, sometimes difficult, yet ultimately lovable president on West Wing, in fact, Dean has more closely resembled Howard Beale, the angry prophet from Network, who is mad as hell and not going to take it anymore. In Dean’s “coming out” speech at the Democratic National Committee’s winter meeting in February, his very first line to the party elite (after a weak joke about maple syrup) was: “What I want to know is why in the world the Democratic Party leadership is supporting the president’s unilateral attack on Iraq.” It was a body blow that Dean followed with a flurry of hooks and jabs, before ending with: “We’re going to change this party! And then we’re going to change this country! And we’re going to take back the White House!” Several in the audience noted (with no small amount of alarm) that Dean had put changing the party first on his list.
But that is what insurgent campaigns are about. Insurgents attract people who have been turned off by traditional party politics (followers of John McCain and Ross Perot, for instance) and also seek to win by drawing new voters into the process. Insurgent campaigns contain the seeds of their own destruction, however. Insurgents are not taken seriously until they win an upset in some primary or caucus and then the party regulars wake up and coalesce around the mainstream front-runner.
This time, however, Dean says things are different. This time, the insurgent has emerged before a front-runner has emerged. So Dean’s road map to victory is this: After he wins first or second place in the Iowa caucuses (January 19) and first place in the New Hampshire primary (January 27), the supporters of the defeated candidates will coalesce around him, which, combined with Dean’s own army of loyalists, will make him unstoppable. But his opponents are sounding the alarm early. They say that while there might be a theoretical opportunity for enough angry hard-core lefties, McCainiacs, Perotistas, Greens, and Deanie Boppers to put Dean over the top in the primaries, he will be a sitting duck for George Bush, defender of America, who will use Dean’s antiwar stance to paint him as a squishy-soft liberal who will not defend the nation in time of crisis. “Dean is a real and enormous threat,” says one highly respected Democratic leader who is not aligned with any campaign. “He won’t fold, and he won’t do something stupid and peak in August. He has only growth potential. If he wins Iowa and he wins New Hampshire, who is going to stop him? Nobody. But Karl Rove (Bush’s chief political adviser) and his crowd are dying to face Dean. It is going to be pretty tough for an antiwar candidate to win in 2004.”
Howard Dean has heard this before–he says he is not antiwar, just anti-Iraq war–and he believes voters will not be scared off. Sitting in the unpretentious Café Piccolo, a short drive from his campaign headquarters, and eating a bowl of soup and an oatmeal cookie (not, he admits, the most nutritious lunch an internist could have), Dean says, “Average Americans, who are concerned with working and feeding their families and are not that interested in politics, think this is a bunch of politicians who don’t have much to say. Average Americans vote for the person they like, and they vote for the person they trust.”
Respect. Which is a little jarring to hear from Dean, since likability and trust do not always come across in speeches that are often dominated by anger and accusation. “This president promised that he would be a uniter, not a divider, and that was a lie!” Dean thundered recently in a speech in Concord, N.H., even though most candidates go out of their way to avoid using “lie” or “liar.”
Dean, however, sees himself as a healer who provides hope and not a firebrand who scorches the earth. “I think being likable is a big deal,” he says. “Part of that likability stuff is not having a big smile and a glad hand; it’s about having people respect you. That’s very important. In fact, that’s more important than having them like you.” One other thing Dean recognizes, at least theoretically, is the limits of anger as a campaign tool. While it has certainly gotten him far fast, he knows it will not get him to the Oval Office. “Anger alone is never going to get you elected president; it’s not going to fuel a campaign,” Dean says. “My campaign is about hope, hope for a community, hope for a country where all of us are going to be included again, and that’s really fueling this campaign much more than the anger is.”
Jan Backus, a former Democratic state senator in Vermont who worked with Dean when he was lieutenant governor and then governor, says likability might not be the first word that comes to mind when thinking about him. “He is not that interested in what you think,” she says. “He is very high energy. He’s, ‘ok, I know what to think, now let’s go do it.’ ” Others find Dean’s style invigorating, however. “I find him very, very refreshing,” says Joe Mathews, 53, who owns a travel agency in Manchester, Vt., and, as a Republican, has always voted against Dean “out of habit.” But Mathews says he will vote for Dean for president because he admires the fiscal conservatism Dean displayed in 11 years as governor. “What the rest of the country is starting to find out,” he says, “is Dean is not particularly left wing. And as far as checkbook issues, he is to the right of George Bush, because if it isn’t in the bank, Dean doesn’t spend it.”
Dean has his own complex feelings about Bush. “I think we were all sort of hoodwinked by George Bush,” Dean says. “Everything he said he was going to do in the campaign he did the opposite of. He is a divider, not a uniter, there is nothing compassionate about him or about his presidency, and he just couldn’t give a damn about the American people.” Anger? What anger?
Campaign manager Trippi, who, at 47, is one of the graybeards of the campaign (only Dean, at 54, is older), says the argument that Dean would be weaker against Bush than a noninsurgent is wrong. “We started out with seven people and $157,000,” Trippi says, clutching his left side where he has either torn a muscle or broken a rib, “and nobody ever heard of us. Kerry, Gephardt, Edwards, Lieberman, they had millions in the bank, access to the best staffs, and massive name ID. So if we can get this far against them, what makes anybody think Karl Rove couldn’t run circles around them? It is great that Karl Rove wants us, because we want George Bush. We are just afraid that at the last minute, the Republicans are going to switch him out for a moderate.” And if it didn’t hurt too much, Trippi would laugh.
Trippi sits in his campaign office, which is decorated in early dorm room–a change of clothes hangs from a picture hook on the wall–and types a secret logon into his battered Hewlett-Packard laptop. His screen soon fills with numbers and bar charts, showing the money pouring into the campaign and, even more important, the volunteers who are signing up. There is a certain obsession with numbers on the Dean campaign. After all, it was the $7.6 million the campaign raised in April, May, and June, largely through the Internet, that made the mainstream media take Dean seriously. It also encouraged Dean to take Dean seriously. Near the end of June, Dean logged on to the site to see if the campaign was going to reach its goal of $4.5 million. He immediately called Trippi. “We’ve been hacked!” Dean said. “Someone put $6 million on the Web site!” Trippi told him they hadn’t been hacked; they had actually raised that much and were raising even more.
And it just keeps coming in. Trippi hits a few keys. “In the month of July,” he says, “we raised online four times the amount of money we raised online in April and May combined.” As of late last week, 226,775 people had signed up to support the Dean campaign. Trippi wants to grow that to 450,000 by September 30 and to 1 million by December 31. If that figure is achieved, Trippi says, “I don’t know what specific [primary] states we will win, but it will be very hard to stop us.” Nor do the dreams end there: Trippi wants 2 million volunteers by the end of the Democratic primaries and 3 million by Election Day. In order to do that, however, the campaign must continue to excite, continue to captivate. “We have to be the most aggressive campaign there is,” Trippi says “and the most unpredictable. The others won’t take risks; Dean will.”
The one thing Dean won’t do, Dean says, is drop out. Some weeks ago, Democratic Party Chairman Terry McAuliffe privately asked each candidate to drop out of the race when it became “mathematically clear” that the party had selected a nominee, a date he estimated would be no later than March 9 of next year. McAuliffe asked each to release his or her delegates and endorse the presumptive winner before the convention.
Dean refused. “It’s not going to happen,” he told U.S. News. “I’m not deliberately going to sit it out [in order to] have an uncontentious convention. I certainly want the Democratic nominee to win and I hope it’s me, but this is about building the party, and I’m building the party and I’m in for the long run.”
I’ll have to admit that I was one who questioned the wisdom behind running television ads in Austin, Texas. Austin is the most liberal city in this state. It appeared to me like we would be preaching to the choir. Why not run the ads in Dallas or Houston, where the real conservatives camp out?
Then it dawned on me. This is not about beating George Bush in Texas. It’s about getting in George Bush’s face. It’s about letting the country know that this campaign is not afraid of George Bush. There is little to no chance that any Democrat can beat George Bush in Texas. People here love him, though I have yet to figure out why. I think it’s just stupid Texan pride… we’ve got a Texan in the White house, and we’re going to keep him there! Of course, money also has a lot to do with it. Plus, Texas is part of the slowly evolving South. New ideas and changes just do not play well here.
But look at the national press the Dean campaign is garnering by running these ads right in Bush’s back yard. The ads are costing about $200,000. There is no other way you would buy that amount of press for that amount of money.
Another thing to consider is that Texas will be sending a lot of delegates to the Democratic National Convention next July. It will be nice to have those delegates in Governor Dean’s pocket when he goes to Boston.