First Door on the Left

Despite vigorous efforts by Sen. John Kerry’s campaign to pin the can’t win label on Howard Dean, the former governor of Vermont has as good a chance - maybe even better - to be accepting the Democrats’ nomination for president a year from now in Boston.

Kerry is losing his home field advantage, despite being next door to New Hampshire with its first-in-the-nation primary and an army of organizers to send there. Dean’s state also abuts New Hampshire. He is energizing its Democrats with his blunt talk, anti-war consistency and a dedicated, Internet-driven network of volunteers.

And though the convention will be held within earshot of Kerry’s Louisburg Square townhouse, he could end up having to hoist Dean’s hand as the nominee.

The Vermonter has pushed past Kerry on some key measures of support, according to the latest Boston Herald poll of likely Democratic primary voters in New Hampshire.

Dean led Kerry by 28 percent to 25 percent, a statistical tie given a 5 percent margin of error, with seven other candidates left in the dust. And Dean, a physician, ranked ahead of Kerry on health care, a key issue.

But what must alarm the Kerry camp most are the numbers on what might happen if Sen. Hillary Clinton were in the race, according to Tuesday’s Herald. She’s not likely to run in ‘04. She’s still perceived as too divisive nationally. Maybe ‘08. But the story is what the poll shows in the difference in core support in New Hampshire for Dean and Kerry.

Clinton - her popularity pumped by her current rock star-style book tour - would lead in New Hampshire. But not by much over Dean. The former first lady had 27 percent in the poll, Dean 23 percent - a gap within the margin of error. Yet she’d lead by double digits over Kerry, whose support would fall from 25 percent to 16 percent.

That indicates Dean’s supporters are passionate, committed, ready to stand by their man no matter what. But that many of Kerry’s are fickle, ready to shift to whichever candidate seems hottest at the moment.

Sure, Kerry can crow about the 47 percent that declared him more electable, while only 17 percent said the same of Dean. And the senator, a decorated Vietnam veteran, got higher marks on foreign policy.

Yet while 47 percent said Dean would bring fresh ideas to the White House, only 17 percent said Kerry would. That’s from an electorate that has been exposed to Kerry, through Boston media, for years.

Ah, the outside-the-Beltway, fresh-face phenomenon. It worked for Jimmy Carter back in 1976 and Bill Clinton in 1992 and for awhile for John McCain in 2000. So far, it’s working for Howard Dean.

Dean, who pulled in $7.6 million to top all candidates in 2003’s second quarter, is raising enough money to duel Kerry, tarmac-to-tarmac, in what will be an ads and quick-interview campaign after New Hampshire.

Other Democrats are in trouble. Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connecticut is having a hard time raising funds. Sens. John Edwards of North Carolina and Bob Graham of Florida are mired at 1 percent in the New Hampshire poll. And U.S. Rep. Dick Gephardt of Missouri has missed nearly 90 percent of this year’s House votes while out campaigning. (Sort of makes Kerry look like a piker with an absentee rate of about 40 percent.)

If Gephardt is going to be that derelict, he ought to do the right thing and resign from Congress to campaign full time. His state, indeed the nation, deserves better. Especially after House Republicans scored a 217-216, one-vote weakening of Head Start last Thursday. Only two members missed the vote, a Republican whose father had just suffered a stroke, and Gephardt, who was campaigning in South Carolina.

So Dean is emerging as Kerry’s toughest foe. GOP pollster Bill McInturff predicts that the new voters Dean is attracting will expand the New Hampshire primary electorate from the usual 150,000 or 175,000 to 200,000 and, probably, deliver Dean a significant victory.

Dean then either would emerge as the nominee or define the Democratic Party, forcing rivals leftward in order to beat him. Either way, McInturff projects Bush wins.

Yet Dean is a governor who understands how the Bush tax cuts have left many states in the lurch. He is a doctor with solid credentials on health care. And he has shown he can pull money literally out of cyberspace.

Beatable? Sure, who isn’t? A pushover? No sane Democrat says that anymore.

“Either way, McInturff projects Bush wins.”

Isn’t it amazing how little credit these pollsters give the people of the United States? They must think we’re all a bunch of brainless zombies. There is no way we are going to give Bush & Co. another four years to destroy our country.

(McInturff? Sounds like a steak and lobster sandwich you would get at McDonald’s.)