I’ll go with the polls on this one. I’m predicting it’ll be Barack Obama and John McCain in New Hampshire.
McCain Leads, Obama With the Mo
Barack Obama - John McCain
MANCHESTER, NH — McCain has doubled his support from a month ago in New Hampshire, and now has an eight-point lead over Romney (32%-24%), according to the latest MSNBC/McClatchy/Mason-Dixon poll. Those two are followed by Huckabee at 12%, Giuliani at 10%, and Paul at 8%. A month ago, the same poll had it Romney 25%, Giuliani 17%, McCain 16%, and Huckabee 11%. The McCain rise is thanks mostly to a recovery in his favorable rating, which jumped nearly 20 points from a month ago. Huckabee, by the way, had no bounce from Iowa. Half of the poll was conducted pre-Iowa, half post-Iowa, and Huckabee didn’t budge. Also, Huckabee’s favorable rating in New Hampshire is not great; he basically has a net-neutral fav/unfav (36%/35%). As for Giuliani, the poll seems to be more evidence of a missed opportunity for him. The three top issues for GOPers are issues Giuliani was supposed to do well on: terrorism, the economy and taxes; immigration is a distant fourth. If Giuliani fails to get the GOP nod with his late-state strategy, many will look at his failure to catch on New Hampshire as the big missed opportunity.
In the Democratic race, Obama is ahead of Clinton, 33%-31%, although that is within the pollâ€™s 5% margin of error. Theyâ€™re followed by Edwards at 17% and Richardson at 7%. A month ago, it was Clinton 30%, Obama 27%, Edwards 10%, Richardson 7%. The Clinton campaign yesterday released a memo from chief strategist Mark Penn, who asked: â€œWhere is the bounceâ€ for Obama? Well, this poll doesnâ€™t suggest a huge bounce (after all, Iowa was just three days ago), but Obama clearly has the Moâ€¦ Perhaps the most interesting finding is the age breakdown (especially Thursdayâ€™s Iowa results and Clintonâ€™s new strategy of appealing to younger voters). Among votes under 50, Obama has a whopping 47%-18% lead over Clinton, but among those over 50, itâ€™s Clinton 40% Obama 23%. The change-versus-experience theme is also evident in the poll. Among those citing change as the most important quality theyâ€™re looking for, Obama beats Clinton, 65%-9%. On experience, Clinton trumps Obama, 49%-15%. The polls were taken from Jan. 2-4 of 400 Democratic and 400 GOP likely primary voters, and the surveys have a 5% margin of error.
Also see: “Poll: Obama jumps ahead of Clinton in New Hampshire.”