Jan 062008

We’ve already mentioned that Mike Huckabee will appear on Late Night with David Letterman tomorrow night. Now we find that Ron Paul will be a guest on The Tonight Show with Jay Leno. Seems he’s upset that the Giuliani Fox News Channel didn’t invite him to their little party debate this evening. Revenge is sweet.

Paul on Leno Tomorrow

Ron Paul
Ron Paul

Being spurned by Fox News and excluded from their forum tonight may be the best thing that ever happened to the Ron Paul campaign.

He will appear Monday night on “The Tonight Show with Jay Leno” to talk to millions about his exclusion from the Fox event, which will be seen by far fewer.

Paul, who raised more in primary contributions than any other [Republican] candidate last quarter, with $19.7 million, is chartering a plane out of the Manchester airport in an hour to fly to Los Angeles for the interview…

Paul campaign spokesman Jesse Benton said the invitation from Leno came on Saturday, when it became clear Fox would not let Paul take part in their debate.

Paul also waged his own protest against Fox when he hired a production company to tape his own town hall forum, which aired live this evening, just before the Fox debate, on both a New Hampshire public access station and the Internet.

This will be the Texas congressman and retired OB-GYN’s second trip to Burbank to sit on Jay’s couch since Halloween.

Interesting late night talk show guests must be hard to come by these days.

Jan 062008

I’ll go with the polls on this one. I’m predicting it’ll be Barack Obama and John McCain in New Hampshire.

McCain Leads, Obama With the Mo

Barack Obama - John McCain
Barack Obama - John McCain

MANCHESTER, NH — McCain has doubled his support from a month ago in New Hampshire, and now has an eight-point lead over Romney (32%-24%), according to the latest MSNBC/McClatchy/Mason-Dixon poll. Those two are followed by Huckabee at 12%, Giuliani at 10%, and Paul at 8%. A month ago, the same poll had it Romney 25%, Giuliani 17%, McCain 16%, and Huckabee 11%. The McCain rise is thanks mostly to a recovery in his favorable rating, which jumped nearly 20 points from a month ago. Huckabee, by the way, had no bounce from Iowa. Half of the poll was conducted pre-Iowa, half post-Iowa, and Huckabee didn’t budge. Also, Huckabee’s favorable rating in New Hampshire is not great; he basically has a net-neutral fav/unfav (36%/35%). As for Giuliani, the poll seems to be more evidence of a missed opportunity for him. The three top issues for GOPers are issues Giuliani was supposed to do well on: terrorism, the economy and taxes; immigration is a distant fourth. If Giuliani fails to get the GOP nod with his late-state strategy, many will look at his failure to catch on New Hampshire as the big missed opportunity.

In the Democratic race, Obama is ahead of Clinton, 33%-31%, although that is within the poll’s 5% margin of error. They’re followed by Edwards at 17% and Richardson at 7%. A month ago, it was Clinton 30%, Obama 27%, Edwards 10%, Richardson 7%. The Clinton campaign yesterday released a memo from chief strategist Mark Penn, who asked: “Where is the bounce” for Obama? Well, this poll doesn’t suggest a huge bounce (after all, Iowa was just three days ago), but Obama clearly has the Mo… Perhaps the most interesting finding is the age breakdown (especially Thursday’s Iowa results and Clinton’s new strategy of appealing to younger voters). Among votes under 50, Obama has a whopping 47%-18% lead over Clinton, but among those over 50, it’s Clinton 40% Obama 23%. The change-versus-experience theme is also evident in the poll. Among those citing change as the most important quality they’re looking for, Obama beats Clinton, 65%-9%. On experience, Clinton trumps Obama, 49%-15%. The polls were taken from Jan. 2-4 of 400 Democratic and 400 GOP likely primary voters, and the surveys have a 5% margin of error.

Also see: “Poll: Obama jumps ahead of Clinton in New Hampshire.”